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Election Watch: 10/19

Annapolitics Staff , , , , , , , , , ,

Electoral College 2016 election results map polls prediction

If you’ve been living under a rock (or just hiding from political news), Republican nominee Donald Trump had another bad week after losing the second debate. A video clip from Access Hollywood surfaced showing Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women. Following this, polls began shifting decisively in Hillary Clinton’s favor, especially among women and independent voters.

This shift is most evident in swing states. Take a look at these two Monmouth polls in Nevada, taken a month apart:

Monmouth isn’t the only polling outfit to show Clinton now with a lead in Nevada. Both Suffolk and CBS give her a six point lead in the Silver State; in fact, the last poll showing Trump with a lead in Nevada was a Fox News poll in late September.

Florida is another state moving in Hillary’s direction since the second debate. Here’s analysis from the Miami Herald:

Clinton drew 48 percent, besting Trump, who garnered 44 percent in the Quinnipiac University survey released Monday, with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drawing 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

The Democrat’s gains have come from independents, Quinnipiac found. They now favor Clinton by 46 percent to Donald Trump’s 38 percent — a clear shift from Quinnipiac’s Oct. 3 poll, when Trump led among independents with 42 percent, and Clinton 39 percent.

So Hillary Clinton goes from being down among independents by three points to leading by eight, an incredible 11-point jump from October 3 to October 16.
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With Trump’s campaign cratering, some truly amazing things are happening to the electoral map. Polls are showing that several longtime Republican states are moving towards Hillary and the Democrats. For example…

Alaska (3 electoral votes) – Lean R

2008: John McCain (R) 59.4%, Barack Obama (D) 37.9% (McCain +21.5)
2012: Mitt Romney (R) 54.8%, Barack Obama (D) 40.8% (Romney +14.0)

Is Alaska turning blue? The Republican lead was cut by over seven points from 2008-2012, although in 2008 Alaska native Sarah Palin was on the ballot. Alaska has the highest percentage of indigenous peoples of any state in the nation, and Trump is not particularly popular outside of white males. Also of note: the polling firm, Moore Information, is a Republican-affiliated pollster which has conducted polls in Alaska every month since August. Trump’s lead has narrowed from ten points in August, to eight in September… to just three in October.

Arizona (11 electoral votes) – Tossup

2008: John McCain (R) 53.6%, Barack Obama (D) 45.1% (McCain +8.5)
2012: Mitt Romney (R) 54.8%, Barack Obama (D) 44.6% (Romney +10.2)

Three polls in three weeks are showing Hillary Clinton tied or with narrow leads over Donald Trump in Arizona. Trump seems to have alienated more than just Arizona’s growing minority population. The Arizona Republic, who had never endorsed a Democrat for President since they were founded in 1890, endorsed Hillary Clinton earlier this month. If you want to read a moving endorsement from a conservative publication, I highly recommend the Republic‘s editorial.

Texas (38 electoral votes) – Lean R

2008: John McCain (R) 55.5%, Barack Obama (D) 43.7% (McCain +11.8)
2012: Mitt Romney (R) 57.2%, Barack Obama (D) 41.4% (Romney +15.8)

Texas has consistently been one of the Republican Party’s strongest states. The last time Texas went for a Democratic president was in 1976, for Jimmy Carter. Since then, the Republican candidate has always won Texas, and only twice (1992 and 1996) were they held to less than double-digit leads. Texas has a large Hispanic population, which Trump’s campaign seems to have gone out of their way to alienate this year. Trump is also performing poorly among women and college-educated voters of all races. If there was a “perfect storm” combination of factors that turn Texas blue, even for just one year, this might be the year it all comes together.

One last fun postscript for stats junkies: both the SurveyUSA and UH polls have Trump’s lead within the margin of error.

 

Ratings by state, and changes from October 4:

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Lean R (-3.0) *change from Likely R
Arizona: Tossup (1.3) *change from Lean R (-3.0)
Arkansas: Safe R (-24.5)
California: Safe D (18.6)
Colorado: Likely D (6.4) *change from Lean D (4.9)
Connecticut: Likely D (11.0)
Delaware: Safe D (15.5) *change from Likely D (10.0)
Florida: Lean D (2.8)
Georgia: Lean R (-4.6)
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R (-21.0)
Illinois: Safe D (19.0)
Indiana: Likely R (-5.3)
Iowa: Likely R (-6.0) *change from Tossup (-1.4)
Kansas: Likely R (-14.5)
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Likely R (-11.5) *change from Safe R (-16.0)
Maine: Likely D (6.7)
-Maine’s 2nd District: Likely R (-5.2)
Maryland: Safe D (32.7)
Massachusetts: Safe D (23.7)
Michigan: Likely D (10.7)
Minnesota: Likely D (6.5)
Mississippi: Likely R (-13.0)
Missouri: Likely R (-6.3)
Montana: Likely R (-10.0) *change from Safe R
Nebraska: Safe R
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Likely R (-8.0)
Nevada: Lean D (2.0) *change from Tossup (0.0)
New Hampshire: Lean D (3.8) *change from Likely D (7.3)
New Jersey: Likely D (8.5)
New Mexico: Likely D (8.5)
New York: Safe D (18.7)
North Carolina: Lean D (2.0) *change from Tossup
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Tossup (-0.1)
Oklahoma: Safe R (-15.0)
Oregon: Likely D (10.5)
Pennsylvania: Likely D (7.4)
Rhode Island: Safe D (20.0) *change from Lean D (3.0)
South Carolina: Lean R (-4.0)
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Likely R (-11.5) *change from Safe R
Texas: Lean R (-4.7) *change from Likely R (-7.8)
Utah: Likely R (-6.4) *change from Safe R (-17.1)
Vermont: Safe D (21.5)
Virginia: Likely D (8.8)
Washington: Safe D (16.0)
West Virginia: Safe R (-22.5)
Wisconsin: Likely D (7.0)
Wyoming: Safe R
District of Columbia: Safe D

The third and final debate is tonight (10/19) at 9:00pm. Trump would need to win this debate in the eyes of American voters to have any chance of turning around this map before Election Day.

Feeling pumped? Volunteer for Hillary!