Early Voting 2018: Anne Arundel County

Day 1 2014 2018 Incr%
DEM 2476 4442 79%
REP 2076 2868 38%
UNA 535 991 85%
Day 2 2014 2018 Incr%
DEM 2439 4413 81%
REP 2155 2973 38%
UNA 575 1191 107%
Day 3 2014 2018 Incr%
DEM 1254 3451 175%
REP 1051 2207 110%
UNA 323 1057 227%
Day 4 2014 2018 Incr%
DEM 1110 3599 224%
REP 915 2053 124%
UNA 312 1008 223%
Day 5 2014 2018
DEM 2318 4712 103%
REP 2104 3166 50%
UNA 635 1270 100%
Day 6 2014 2018
DEM 2341 4820 106%
REP 2094 3159 51%
UNA 585 1475 152%
Day 7 2014 2018
DEM 2567 4500 75%
REP 2329 2957 27%
UNA 832 1404 69%
Day 8 2014 2018
DEM 3385 5693 68%
REP 2978 3466 16%
UNA 1109 1847 67%

Anne Arundel is one of those counties where the charts speak a thousand words. If you look only at the dark blue (2014) bars, turnout between Democrats and Republicans was roughly the same each day. Democrats had slight advantages of about 400 voters on Day 1 in 2014, and then about 200 on each successive day. The 2018 numbers are starkly different, with Democrats holding giant turnout advantages over Republicans of over 1,500 voters on Day 1, and no less than 1,200 on any other day.

Long considered a conservative county, Anne Arundel has been trending slowly but steadily in the Democrats’ direction in recent years. John McCain won the county by 1.8 percentage points in 2008, 50.0-48.2%. Four years later, Mitt Romney only won by 0.1 point. In 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat to win the county since 1964, opening up a 2.3 percentage point lead over Donald Trump. Larry Hogan took 66.1% of the vote in the Republican wave of 2014, but it is also his home county. If the Democrats’ lead in turnout continues through election day, that number for Hogan will be much smaller.

Another interesting point is the percentage of increase over 2014 (Incr%), another number that has heavily favored Democrats over the first four days. While turnout is up across the board compared to 2014, the increase among Democrats is much higher than the increase among Republicans. On Day 4 (Sunday), Democrats recorded a 224% increase in voter turnout, an absolutely staggering increase.

These trends did not change after the weekend. While the rate of growth slowed somewhat, Democrats continued to significantly outpace Republicans, both by raw number of voters and percentage of increase.

Sources: Early voting turnout by party 2014 | 2018