CHARTS: Early Voting Turnout Should Ring Alarm Bells for Republicans
Low voter turnout is often cited as the biggest factor that drove now-Governor Larry Hogan to his upset victory over Anthony Brown in 2014. Indeed, turnout was less than 40% in Montgomery County, Prince George’s County, and Baltimore City, which are the three primary bastions of Democratic voters in Maryland. Ben Jealous, the current Democratic candidate for Governor, is hoping for a much higher turnout among members of his own party in 2018. So far, it looks like he’s getting his wish: turnout numbers across Maryland are on pace to be much higher than they were four years ago. Turnout levels are up among Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters, but the increase is particularly evident for Democrats after five days of early voting.
After five days of early voting, Democratic turnout statewide is up 140% (about 2 and a half times as many voters as 2014), Republican turnout is up 102% (just over 2 times as many voters) and turnout among unaffiliated voters is up 198% (almost 3 times as many). Higher turnout is always good news – it means more people are participating in our democracy and as a result our government will be more representative of the population. Higher turnout among Democrats implies that more people are turning out because of President Trump than Governor Hogan. Significantly higher turnout among Democrats could have even deeper implications: that the assumptions made by the pollsters about likely voters could be way off, and Hogan may be in for a close race rather than a 20-point victory.
One important caveat is that early voting turnout is not an indicator of higher overall voting turnout. People who are highly motivated to vote may simply be choosing to vote early rather than on Election Day. However, it is very interesting just how much of an increase in early voter turnout we’ve seen this year, especially among Democrats, and especially among Democrats in those stronghold counties with low turnout four years ago.
I find that these graphs are extremely helpful in visualizing the vast differences by political party and day of early voting. I hope they are equally as helpful to you. Select a county from the list below to get started:
- Anne Arundel
- Baltimore City
- Baltimore County
- Charles
- Frederick
- Howard
- Montgomery
- Prince George’s
- Wicomico